Tool 03
Mid-Season Hitter Profiler
Take a partial-season stat line and surface what's likely real, what's likely regression, and where the profile is internally inconsistent. Use compare mode to see how the same line tells different stories under different batted-ball mixes.
Snapshot
BABIP
0.350
Exp 0.328 (Δ +0.022)
HR/PA
1.0%
Exp 2.7%
Proj AVG
0.270
0.259 – 0.281
Coherence
OK
Flags
Confident
BABIP aligned
BABIP 0.350 is within 30 points of expected 0.328.
Confident
HR rate matches profile
HR/PA 1.0% aligns with expected 2.7%.
Confident
Profile coherent
GB%, FB%, and HR rate are internally consistent for the batted-ball mix.
Confident
AVG stable
PA 312 ≥ 250; AVG carries meaningful signal.
Confident
AVG roughly sustainable
Projected AVG 0.270 is within 25 points of current 0.286.
Limitations
- MiLB GB%/FB%/LD% splits aren’t available from the public Stats API — keep those inputs manual in Tool 3.
- Expected BABIP weights are population averages; individual sprint speed, contact quality, and park effects matter.
- AVG projection assumes K and HR rates hold steady — both noisy in mid-season samples.
- Coherence flag is a heuristic; an inconsistent profile may simply mean a player is changing approach.
Analysis